Continuing on from last week’s post on Anthopoulos and the top two stats he focuses on for a hitter – BB% and SO% (percentage of plate appearances that result in a walk or a strikeout), I’ve decided to look at the Blue Jays outfield for 2013 and how they’ve done in this area. Just to refresh everyone’s memory, an average MLB player will produce the following: 17.7% for SO%, 8.4% for BB% and 2.10 for SO/BB.
I’ve already covered Jose Bautista who’s stats can be seen below as a refresher:
In 2012, I was pretty happy to see Colby match his career high in home runs (23) and set a new career high with 75 RBI in a season. Although I have to say it was done with a torrid June and a pretty awful rest of the year as Bluebird Banter nicely addressed here.
Looking at these metrics only, one can see that Colby’s been incredibly bad as a Blue Jay compared to a Cardinal. Even before the 2011 trade to Toronto, he was having a better year than in 2010 where he posted a career best .859 OPS although that was with an exceptionally high .354 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In-Play where league average is .290 to .310). If Colby’s BABIP even returns to his 4-year average of .287, he should have his most successful season as a Blue Jay yet. In fact, Bill James is projecting a .237/.312/.427 (BA/OBP/SLG) with a 9.4 BB% and 23.5 SO% in 2013. The batting average is still low, but the rest of it would be an improvement upon his time as a Blue Jay thus far. I’d certainly take that!
In looking at what Melky’s done, he’s been a well-above average MLB hitter his entire career except for the fact that he’s a bit under league average in taking a walk. What’s interesting is that Melky had his highest BABIP of .379 last year, so we can’t expect him to hit .346 again, but a nice .295 as Bill James projects would be great. Besides, if he shows a selective eye, makes contact and gets on-base, I’m sure Anthopoulos and the rest of the Blue Jays would be happy with his performance…especially if he scores 88 runs next year as Bill James also forecasts.